Aug 24

Sterling Gains against Swiss Franc on Strong Manufacturing Exports (James Lovick)

The pound has seen a small pick up against the Swiss Franc over the last week after a run of better UK economic data has pointed to a better outlook post Brexit for the time being anyway.

The latest Confederation of Business Industry (CBI) numbers released yesterday showed manufacturing exports hit a 2 year high. This is largely as a result of the weaker pound post Brexit but all the same it highlights a very buoyant manufacturing sector which is most welcome news for Britain.

The news could not be much better and it is no surprise the pound has started to push higher against all of the major currencies including the Swiss Franc.

Unemployment data last week held steady at 4.9% although the number of individuals claiming unemployment benefit actually fell which is good news for the British economy. Retails sales for the month of July also saw a bumper month on the high street so it’s not all doom and gloom as many had predicted.

For anyone selling Swiss Francs for pounds there is without doubt an excellent opportunity to convert at this time. In light of an improving outlook at this time it may be wise to move sooner rather than later to avoid disappointment.

UK GDP numbers are released on Friday and represent the 3 month period in the run up to the referendum on EU membership. A strong or steady figure should help support the pound.

If you have an upcoming GBP or CHF currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Aug 23

Sterling Remains Under Pressure (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling remains under pressure against the CHF, with the pair marooned under 1.30 for the last month. With current levels fluctuating around 1.27 on the exchange, GBP may find it difficult to breach the 1.30 resistance level under current market conditions. The CHF is generally seen a safe haven currency by investors, due to its resilience during times of global uncertainty and as such will generally hold its value better than others. However, it is unusual to see GBP/CHF rates trade at these lows and this has been caused by the general market perception surrounding the UK economy at present.

The Pound has started to find a foothold following some positive unemployment data and better than expected Retail Sales figures last week but despite this little impact has been made. The Pound is still fighting against a wave of negative market perception and with so much uncertainty still surrounding the UK economy, any sustained strength for Sterling is unlikely in my opinion. We need to consider that whilst we have no clearer picture of how or when we will trigger Article 50, which will begin the process of our Brexit, then investors risk appetite for the Pound will be minimal. There is also a strong chance that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates again to 0% and with a possible recession looming over us, any clients holding GBP should be looking to protect themselves against further losses.

If you have an upcoming GBP or CHF currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact us on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Aug 23

Will GBPCHF sink to new lows?

GBPCHF is likely to come under further pressure in the coming weeks as we learn of new developments in UK economic data and we learn too of new developments in the Brexit situation. Most expectations are skewed towards further negativity on the part of the UK, some commentators have suggested the UK will now enter a gentle period of decline with business putting the brakes on investment and consumers waiting to see what happens. Whilst this hasn’t really yet manifested on the rates or consumer sentiment, business confidence is lower and there remains many unanswered questions over the UK’s future with the EU.

A key point this morning was the release of the latest Trade Balance figures which have shown a reduction in the Trade Balance numbers but this was primarily because of a decline in exports and an increase in imports. As a net exporter (the Swiss sell more overseas than they buy from overseas) this is not great news but the Swiss economy remains in a strong position still. Ideally they want a weaker currency to help their exports so the strong CHF is not the best news. The Swiss National Bank had in the past intervened in the currency markets to help the currency to weaken although I would not expect this to happen, still last time it happened the CHF moved many cents in a short space of time as it was completely unexpected. The CHF remains strong because of its strong trade position and the fact the economy is seen as a safe haven. Investors like the CHF because they believe the Swiss currency will hold good value over the long term, even with negative interest rates it is felt that holding the currency is a safe hedge against uncertainty elsewhere.

Later this week will be the the Swiss Industrial figures released on Thursday, if you have any transfers to consider involving the CHF and wish for further information on the best strategy is such a market please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Aug 22

GBP/CHF at a 10 day high (Ben Fletcher)

It might not be much and it’s only a small jump but Sterling appears to be gaining some strength after a very tough 2 months. After the initial shock from the Brexit vote Sterling has gradually dropped over the last month. This appears to have reached a bottom and there could be some good news only just around the corner.

The Swiss Franc has probably been one of the biggest gainers from the Sterling trouble as many investors use the CHF as a place to protect their funds against uncertainty. Whilst the GBP/CHF is at a 5 year low it represents a superb window of opportunity for Franc sellers. In my opinion the news from JPMorgan this morning which suggested the UK could be a good investment could be the beginning of a run. The investment bank published a statement implying UK stocks and bonds are a much better investment than Europe. This may be primarily down the fact the EU is sitting on a time bomb with Greece and Italy with little chance of a fix.

Tomorrow Switzerland will release their trade balance figures, assuming there is no surprises it seems unlikely there will be any major movements. The markets are driven by macro conditions rather than micro at the moment.

Whilst Sterling is on the up it seems very unlikely that we will see any major jumps in the near future, just a positive trend.

Working for an established brokerage allows me to achieve the best rates of exchange for my clients. I am also able to assist with the timing of a transaction to make sure you get the most for your money. If you would like some information with regards to a currency requirement please email me at brf@currencies.co.uk.  

Aug 19

GBPCHF rates slide to 5 year low!

Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rates have continued their demise as sterling comes under further pressure and the Swissie remains as buoyant as ever. The coming weeks will determine whether or not there is further to fall as we learn of more action potentially from the Bank of England and also get fresh news on economic growth for the UK. The Swissie is performing well owing to its status as a safe haven currency which effectively puts it right at odds with sterling at present hence the big falls. Plus the Euro and the Franc very loosely track each other since although the loose pegging was removed the SNB (Swiss National Bank) operates to keep the currency competitive against the Euro. If you wish to learn more about the relationship between the CHF and the Euro please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Current market sentiments suggest sterling will decline further despite some slightly better data on Retail Sales this week. It would be expected that the lower levels of business activity will in turn feed into the wider economy in terms of job losses down the line. A report this week suggesting UK Unemployment was steady is not indicative of the fact Brexit is nothing to worry about more that the period it was reviewing was pre Brexit. Also the decline in the claimant count is because any firms that need to lose workers will not do so quickly, Unemployment tends to lag the economic activity as it takes a while for the negative impacts to set in and really force the job losses.

If you need to buy Francs it would appear moving sooner is the best course of action to mitigate any future uncertainty that might arise on the part of the pound and make your transfer more expensive. Those looking to sell Francs for the pound might wish to carefully track the market for spikes since we are witnessing some of the best levels in 5 years. For more information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Aug 18

GBPCHF find Strength following strong retail sales

  • GBPCHF shot up half a cent following the news
  • Rates trading at a week high
  • Could rates continue in Sterling’s favour?
  • UK special deal hints

Sterling finds support following positive data

It came as a surprise for some to see this morning’s retail sales for the UK. Whilst the economic mood has been gloomy since their decision to opt out of the EU, the British economy has in fact, shown very little signs of economic instability.

Unemployment rates and claimant counts were also down for July, inflation is also up according to the latest consumer price figures. Could Sterling be in for further strength?

British economy and a cheaper Pound Sterling

The UK could actually be benefitting from a cheaper Pound, not only is foreign investment at record highs, cheaper exports and falling house prices could in fact be working in the UK’s favour. British farmers may also be pleased with the fall in Sterling’s value, given their EU payments are paid in Euro’s, the Sterling equivalent is worth more this summer.

Whilst Brexit remains a huge question mark for the UK, I am predicting further strength for Sterling off the back of a weaker Pound.

German Minister hints at special deal post-Brexit

It has also come to light that EU officials are sorted special treatment for the UK post-Brexit. Whilst it remains unlikely that the UK will cherry pick such deals, it could well be early signs of a quick and painless solution. Germany’s car exports to the UK are a huge business, and whilst it generates a good supply of Germany’s GDP, it remains in their interest to keep the UK away from imposing trade tariffs on these goods.

With the above in mind, I would be mindful that improvements could be on the horizon sooner rather than later. Please get in touch with me at rdl@currencies.co.uk if you would like to learn more.

Aug 17

Swiss Franc Strength on Brexit Woes (James Lovick)

The pound continues its slide lower against the Swiss Franc and by some way with a gradual but steady fall in July and August. The lure of the safe haven of the Swiss Franc is extremely apparent at present with considerable losses for GBP CHF over the last few weeks.

UK inflation data released yesterday which arrived marginally higher than expected helped support the pound although only marginally. The inflation data is important as the weaker pound post Brexit is now having the effect of making British imports more expensive.

These higher prices are already starting to make their way into consumer prices and this is a trend that will almost certainly worsen in the coming months. It may mean that the Bank of England may need to put a hold on that potential interest rate cut it signalled late this year if the economic outlook deteriorates.

This morning sees UK unemployment data which has the potential to create considerable market movement as this is official hard data as opposed to surveys.

My view however is that it is still far too early post Brexit to see any real worsening in the data. Going forward unemployment is likely to rise and this should start to be felt in the Autumn and it is at this point that the effect of Brexit will really begin to bite. We’re not there yet but all the talk of a potential recession are likely to keep the pressure on sterling exchange rates.

Anyone selling Swiss Francs may see some slightly improved rate of exchange in the coming weeks although much of the negativity of Brexit and its implications should really be almost priced in to the pound by now.

If you have an upcoming GBP or CHF currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Aug 15

The Swiss Franc Strength Continues (Ben Fletcher)

Sterling continued its latest slump dropping into the 1.24’s for the first time in 5 years. After the biggest fall in the cost of houses for 9 months the markets have moved massively against Sterling. Furthermore the construction industry is essentially in recession causing very little confidence in the pound. Today there were rumours that the UK Government may not be looking to implement Article 50 and that Britain may not leave the EU till the earliest of 202 if that was the case.

The expected fallout appears to be finally kicking in after their looked to be limited damage to the economy at first glance. Should this bad data continue there is a real threat that the Bank of England may choose to cut the interest rate down to 0.10%. The Governor, Mark Carney has suggested that he would not in his time implement negative interest rates. This has at least provided confidence in the market of where the bottom is however 0.1% essentially makes saving pointless.

Switzerland benefits from bad news from other currencies and the situation with Sterling especially is creating a huge over valuation. There is not positive news coming from Switzerland to support this movement and whilst it may continue for a medium period the collapse will come eventually.

Once the UK gets through 2016 and the Brexit is old news there will be the opportunity for businesses to start to grow again. This I think in the long term see the GBP/CHF rate move back towards the 1.40 level.

Working at a currency brokerage allows me to significant control over the level of exchange rates I can offer. I am also able to assist with the timing of a transaction to make sure you get the most for your money. If you do have a currency requirements please feel free to send me Ben Fletcher an email at brf@currencies.co.uk.  

Aug 12

GBP/CHF Rates Continue to Fall (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP has found life tough going recently, with heavy losses against most of the major currencies. The Pound has struggled ever since the UK’s decision to leave the EU and based on the current market conditions, I cannot see this trend reversing anytime soon. GBP/CHF rates have dropped almost 6 cents over the past month and with the pair currently trading close to 1.26 on the exchange, those clients holding out for a recovery back above 1.30, may be left disappointed in the short-term.

Any sustainable increase for Sterling will be reliant on a change in market perception, as currently risk appetite for the Pound is extremely low. With so much uncertainty surrounding the UK economy at present, in particular how and when we will start to facilitate our Brexit and what consequences this will have on the UK economy in the longer-term. With so many unanswered questions it is no real surprise to see the Pound struggling and whilst the current trend won’t last forever, how much further Sterling could fall is very difficult to quantify, due to the unique situation our economy now finds itself in.

Personally I feel the current levels on GBP/CHF reflect this lack of market confidence in the Pound, rather than any overriding positivity in the CHF. Therefore I would be wary about just assuming that we will see this aggressive spike continue, as the Pound could find a foothold with the slightest change in sentiment. Therefore I would be looking to protect my positions and not risk further volatility in what is an extremely unstable market.

If you have an upcoming GBP or CHF currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, you can subscribe to this blog for regular market updates, or email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Aug 11

Have we seen the true damage caused by Brexit vote? – Pound Forecast (Daniel Charles Johnson

GBP Forecast

The pound is falling in value against the majority of major currencies. After the EU referendum vote we have seen consistent poor UK data. What is worrying is that the figures that have been released recently are for June. I expect July’s figures to be much worse as this will begin to show the true damage caused by the Brexit vote.

The Bank of England has already cut interest rates to a record low of 0.25% and Ian McCafferty a member of the monetary policy committee has indicated if below par data continues to be released for the UK further monetary policy change could take place. Things could get a lot worse for Sterling. If you have GBP-CHF requirement it may be wise to move sooner rather.

If you have a currency trade it is vital to be in touch with a veteran broker. The timing of your trade is a crucial factor during such volatile times. If you have an experienced broker on board he or she can be your eyes and ears in the market to assist in making an informed decision. If you would like me to work on your trade I will be happy to help. Please inform me of  the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free individual trading strategy. I work for one of the top brokerages in the UK.I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate. The authors of Swiss Franc Forecast all work at Foreign Currency Direct. We are up to date with the events that move the currency markets with the majority of us writing two blogs per day. By using our brokerage you would be looking at around  3-4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do not hesitate to get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to being of assistance.

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